← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Fri, Nov 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ruddy Buquet, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bordeaux win | 40% | 49% | 2.41 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 30% | 25% | 3.27 | fair |
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 30% | 26% | 3.28 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ (og) | Jérémy Toulalan · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 41' | 🟨 | Otavio · Bordeaux |
| 43' | 🟨 | Benjamin André · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 47' | 🟨 | François Kamano · Bordeaux |
| 68' | 🟨 | Nicolas de Préville · Bordeaux |
| 70' | 🟨 | Vukašin Jovanović · Bordeaux |
| 80' | 🟨 | Wahbi Khazri · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Younousse Sankharé · Bordeaux |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 6 |
| 2 | On target | 0 |
| 8 | Corners | 0 |
| 14 | Fouls | 26 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Rennais FC 1901 | Bordeaux |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 |
| venue | Roazhon Park |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 2.00 | 490.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.78 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1616.79 | 1691.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.77 | -25.18 |
| eye test v1 | -0.73 | 0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 56.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.66 |
| league points | 12.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 6.04 | 6.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 1.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.02 | 0.92 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 23.94 | 26.53 |
| state index | 0.11 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.42 | -0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |