← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Oct 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benoit Millot, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 83% | 83% | 1.18 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 13% | 9.20 | value: +23% |
| Metz win | 7% | 3% | 15.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Nabil Fekir · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 20' | ⚽ | Nabil Fekir · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 42' | 🟨 | Cafú · Metz |
| 48' | 🟨 | Chris Philipps · Metz |
| 61' | 🟨 | Jonathan Rivierez · Metz |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique Lyonnais | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Parc Olympique Lyonnais |
| coach days | 698.00 | 28.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 1.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1727.53 | 1382.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.20 | -18.02 |
| eye test v1 | 0.98 | -0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.90 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.56 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.68 |
| league points | 19.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 40.60 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 8.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.60 |
| season ppg | 1.90 | 0.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.23 | -0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 22.55 | — |
| state index | 0.98 | -0.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.80 | -0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |