← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Oct 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Francois Letexier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 41% | 45% | 2.39 | value: +7% |
| Lille OSC win | 31% | 34% | 3.15 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 28% | 21% | 3.51 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 11 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lille OSC | Olympique de Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade Pierre-Mauroy |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 150.00 | 393.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.15 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1513.32 | 1680.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.88 | 11.71 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | 0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.30 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.67 |
| league points | 6.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 8.04 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 18.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.88 | 0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 22.40 | 27.77 |
| state index | -0.79 | 0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.85 | -0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |