← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Fri, Oct 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Tony Chapron, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 85% | 85% | 1.15 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 12% | 10.05 | value: +18% |
| OGC Nice win | 5% | 4% | 19.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Edinson Cavani · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 31' | ⚽ | Edinson Cavani · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 52' | ⚽ (og) | Dante · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Paris Saint-Germain FC | OGC Nice |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.56 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.81 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Parc des Princes |
| 0.60 |
| coach days | 513.00 | 544.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.83 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1873.72 | 1621.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.92 | -57.93 |
| eye test v1 | 0.69 | 1.57 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.20 | 65.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.97 | 1.66 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.63 |
| league points | 26.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.40 | 90.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 67.60 | 62.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.56 | 2.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.90 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.40 |
| squad age | 25.71 | 25.25 |
| state index | 1.43 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 2.05 | 1.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |