← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Oct 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Nicolas Rainville, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 57% | 61% | 1.72 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | 3.87 | fair |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 18% | 17% | 5.54 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Nuno Da Costa · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 49' | ⚽ | Nuno Da Costa · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 53' | 🟥 | Ernest Seka · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 54' | ⚽ (pen) | Pierre Lees Melou · OGC Nice |
| 58' | 🟨 | Dimitri Liénard · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 15 |
| 9 | On target | 6 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 5 | Fouls | 5 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | OGC Nice | RC Strasbourg Alsace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Allianz Riviera |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 539.00 | 478.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.74 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1636.44 | 1498.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -48.06 | -21.48 |
| eye test v1 | 1.14 | 0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.90 | 62.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.63 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.60 |
| league points | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 90.20 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.40 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 2.28 | 0.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.25 | — |
| state index | -0.23 | -0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.15 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |