← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Oct 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ruddy Buquet, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 72% | 59% | 1.37 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 22% | 5.80 | value: +28% |
| Olympique de Marseille win | 11% | 19% | 8.60 | value: +66% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique de Marseille | Paris Saint-Germain FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.80 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Orange Vélodrome |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 386.00 | 508.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.10 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1676.31 | 1877.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.81 | 11.14 |
| eye test v1 | 0.96 | 1.40 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.51 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 68.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 2.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| league points | 17.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 89.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 68.80 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 2.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.20 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.79 | 2.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 7.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.00 |
| squad age | 27.77 | 24.66 |
| state index | 0.86 | 1.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | 1.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |