← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Oct 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Amaury Delerue, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 43% | 46% | 2.29 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 31% | 33% | 3.17 | value: +3% |
| Guingamp win | 26% | 22% | 3.74 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Chidozie Awaziem · Nantes |
| 26' | 🟨 | Christophe Kerbrat · Guingamp |
| 43' | 🟨 | Préjuce Nakoulma · Nantes |
| 49' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Touré · Nantes |
| 70' | ⚽ | Abdoul Camara · Guingamp |
| 71' | 🟨 | Diego Carlos · Nantes |
| 86' | ⚽ | Abdoulaye Touré · Nantes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.54 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire |
| coach days | 142.00 | 477.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 2.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1565.17 | 1531.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.56 | 7.56 |
| eye test v1 | 0.04 | 0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.71 |
| league points | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.87 | -0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| state index | 0.62 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.98 | -0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |