← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Oct 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Johan Hamel, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angers SCO win | 49% | 48% | 2.02 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.45 | fair |
| Toulouse FC win | 23% | 23% | 4.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Christopher Jullien · Toulouse FC |
| 38' | ⚽ | Issa Diop · Toulouse FC |
| 60' | 🟨 | Giannelli Imbula · Toulouse FC |
| 68' | 🟨 | Somalia · Toulouse FC |
| 70' | 🟨 | Enzo Crivelli · Angers SCO |
| 74' | 🟨 | Yoann Andreu · Angers SCO |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alban Lafont · Toulouse FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 3 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Angers SCO | Toulouse FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade Raymond Kopa |
| coach days | 2304.00 | 599.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.77 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1562.91 | 1517.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.35 | -7.62 |
| eye test v1 | 0.48 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | -0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 52.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.69 |
| league points | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.24 | -0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.26 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.45 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |