← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Oct 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Brisard Jerome, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 35% | 42% | 2.79 | value: +17% |
| OGC Nice win | 34% | 25% | 2.91 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 33% | 3.15 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Dante · OGC Nice |
| 55' | ⚽ | Stéphane Sessègnon · Montpellier |
| 61' | 🟨 | Jérôme Roussillon · Montpellier |
| 74' | ⚽ | Isaac Mbenza · Montpellier |
| 76' | 🟨 | Isaac Mbenza · Montpellier |
| 87' | 🟨 | Vitorino Hilton · Montpellier |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Montpellier | OGC Nice |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade de la Mosson |
| coach days | 167.00 | 532.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1496.08 | 1671.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.93 | 10.43 |
| eye test v1 | -0.69 | 1.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.10 | 64.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 1.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| league points | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 89.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 59.20 |
| rest days | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.09 | 2.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.00 |
| squad age | — | 25.25 |
| state index | -0.06 | 0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.01 | 1.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |