← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Oct 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Francois Letexier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 53% | 56% | 1.86 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 30% | 25% | 3.31 | fair |
| Amiens win | 18% | 19% | 5.47 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Oualid El Hajjam · Amiens |
| 40' | ⚽ | Andy Delort · Toulouse FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Guy Ngosso · Amiens |
| 67' | 🟨 | Prince Gouano · Amiens |
| 87' | 🟨 | Khaled Adenon · Amiens |
| 88' | 🟨 | Yaya Sanogo · Toulouse FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Prince Gouano · Amiens |
| 90' | 🟥 | Prince Gouano · Amiens |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 0 |
| 14 | Fouls | 21 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | Amiens |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadium Municipal |
| coach days | 592.00 | 1048.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 2.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1508.56 | 1521.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.61 | -1.96 |
| eye test v1 | -0.63 | -1.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.37 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 62.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | — |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.70 |
| league points | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 70.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 21.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.83 | -1.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| state index | -0.28 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.65 | -0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |