← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Oct 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Olivier Thual, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 59% | 64% | 1.67 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.97 | fair |
| Metz win | 17% | 13% | 5.94 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Fallou Diagne · Metz |
| 21' | 🟨 | Fallou Diagne · Metz |
| 45' | 🟨 | Romain Hamouma · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 74' | ⚽ | Vincent Pajot · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 85' | ⚽ (og) | Cafú · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bryan Dabo · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 90' | ⚽ | Habib Maïga · AS Saint-Étienne |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 12 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Saint-Étienne | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stade Geoffroy-Guichard |
| coach days | 135.00 | 13.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.60 | 1.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1582.27 | 1398.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.45 | -12.69 |
| eye test v1 | 0.05 | -1.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | 61.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.70 |
| league points | 14.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | — |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 0.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.23 | -0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.00 |
| state index | -0.09 | -0.82 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |