← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Oct 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Frank Schneider, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guingamp win | 45% | 46% | 2.16 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.53 | fair |
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 27% | 25% | 3.64 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 9 | On target | 0 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 19 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Guingamp | Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade du Roudourou |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 470.00 | 470.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | 3.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1518.77 | 1526.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.19 | -3.69 |
| eye test v1 | 0.31 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | -0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.69 |
| league points | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.44 | 0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.10 | -0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.63 | -0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |