← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Oct 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jerome Miguelgorry, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 85% | 82% | 1.15 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 12% | 9.60 | value: +16% |
| Dijon win | 5% | 6% | 21.00 | value: +25% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | 🟨 | Neymar · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 42' | 🟨 | Naïm Sliti · Dijon |
| 48' | 🟨 | Presnel Kimpembe · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 50' | 🟨 | Valentin Rosier · Dijon |
| 52' | 🟨 | Dani Alves · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 70' | ⚽ | Thomas Meunier · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 75' | 🟨 | Adrien Rabiot · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Jordan Marié · Dijon |
| 87' | 🟨 | Benjamin Jeannot · Dijon |
| 87' | ⚽ | Benjamin Jeannot · Dijon |
| 90' | ⚽ | Thomas Meunier · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 18 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dijon | Paris Saint-Germain FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Stade Gaston-Gérard |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 1931.00 | 500.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1551.73 | 1952.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.80 | 14.60 |
| eye test v1 | 0.29 | 1.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.43 | -0.64 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.80 | 65.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 2.11 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| league points | 6.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 90.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 67.60 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 2.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.19 | 2.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| squad age | — | 24.76 |
| state index | -0.34 | 1.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.12 | 1.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |