← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Oct 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Benoît Bastien, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 40% | 45% | 2.44 | value: +10% |
| Olympique de Marseille win | 32% | 32% | 3.05 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 23% | 3.54 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 19 | Shots | 17 |
| 10 | On target | 9 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | OGC Nice | Olympique de Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Allianz Riviera |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 518.00 | 365.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.59 | 3.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1690.18 | 1656.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 55.81 | -11.02 |
| eye test v1 | 0.44 | 0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.10 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.88 |
| league points | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.00 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.00 | 58.00 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 2.88 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 2.00 | 1.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 24.97 | 27.77 |
| state index | 1.17 | 0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |