← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Francois Letexier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 85% | 85% | 1.15 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 9% | 9.60 | fair |
| Bordeaux win | 5% | 5% | 20.50 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Neymar · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 12' | ⚽ | Edinson Cavani · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 21' | ⚽ | Thomas Meunier · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 31' | ⚽ | Younousse Sankharé · Bordeaux |
| 39' | 🟨 | Vukašin Jovanović · Bordeaux |
| 40' | ⚽ (pen) | Neymar · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Thomas Meunier · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 45' | ⚽ | Julian Draxler · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 58' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 64' | 🟨 | Younousse Sankharé · Bordeaux |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Malcom · Bordeaux |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 5 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 17 |
| 9 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Paris Saint-Germain FC | Bordeaux |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Parc des Princes |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 486.00 | 456.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 2.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1946.38 | 1725.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.90 | 25.08 |
| eye test v1 | 1.42 | 0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.60 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.00 | 61.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.99 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.20 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.74 |
| league points | 19.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 90.00 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 2.71 | 2.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | 2.83 | 1.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.70 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.45 | 25.25 |
| state index | 1.95 | 0.97 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.78 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |