← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Johan Hamel, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 61% | 53% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 30% | 4.08 | value: +21% |
| Metz win | 15% | 17% | 6.50 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Emiliano Sala · Nantes |
| 46' | 🟨 | Benoît Assou-Ekotto · Metz |
| 52' | 🟨 | Benoît Assou-Ekotto · Metz |
| 52' | 🟥 | Benoît Assou-Ekotto · Metz |
| 63' | 🟨 | Renaud Cohade · Metz |
| 90' | 🟨 | Andrei Girotto · Nantes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lucas Lima · Nantes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Iván Balliu · Metz |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire |
| coach days | 121.00 | 669.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.24 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1556.91 | 1402.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 38.77 | -10.39 |
| eye test v1 | -0.49 | -0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.10 | 64.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.59 |
| league points | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.00 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.86 | 0.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.58 | 0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| state index | 0.58 | -0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.32 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |