← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Sep 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Benoit Millot, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 64% | 62% | 1.54 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.27 | fair |
| Toulouse FC win | 13% | 15% | 7.34 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Luiz Gustavo · Olympique de Marseille |
| 32' | ⚽ | Florian Thauvin · Olympique de Marseille |
| 61' | ⚽ | Lucas Ocampos · Olympique de Marseille |
| 84' | 🟨 | André Zambo Anguissa · Olympique de Marseille |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 12 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique de Marseille | Toulouse FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Orange Vélodrome |
| 3.60 |
| coach days | 358.00 | 572.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.21 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1661.51 | 1513.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.82 | 1.76 |
| eye test v1 | 0.37 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.00 | 53.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.89 | 0.71 |
| league points | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.20 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.63 | — |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.32 | -0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.77 | — |
| state index | 0.38 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.71 | -0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |