← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Clement Turpin, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 79% | 77% | 1.24 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 14% | 6.70 | fair |
| Montpellier win | 7% | 9% | 14.75 | value: +36% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Marquinhos · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 31' | 🟨 | Casimir Ninga · Montpellier |
| 41' | 🟨 | Pedro Mendes · Montpellier |
| 75' | 🟨 | Lucas Moura · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 11 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Montpellier | Paris Saint-Germain FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Stade de la Mosson |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 145.00 | 479.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.28 | 1.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.69 |
| elo | 1480.39 | 1876.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.27 | 24.60 |
| eye test v1 | -0.66 | 2.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.00 | 65.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 3.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 1.83 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 2.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.55 |
| league points | 7.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 90.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 70.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 19.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.52 | 2.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 8.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 8.60 |
| squad age | — | 25.66 |
| state index | -0.23 | 1.97 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.34 | 1.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |