← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Hakim Ben el Salem Hadj, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caen win | 49% | 48% | 1.99 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.28 | fair |
| Amiens win | 21% | 24% | 4.70 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 54' | ⚽ (pen) | Ivan Santini · Caen |
| 57' | 🟨 | Moussa Konaté · Amiens |
| 59' | 🟨 | Jonathan Delaplace · Caen |
| 73' | 🟨 | Thomas Monconduit · Amiens |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 2 |
| 4 | On target | 0 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 19 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | Amiens |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stade Michel d'Ornano |
| coach days | 3006.00 | 1027.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1547.00 | 1520.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.09 | 8.79 |
| eye test v1 | -0.59 | -0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 62.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.68 |
| league points | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.16 | -0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 28.50 | 27.36 |
| state index | 0.37 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.17 | -0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |