← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Fri, Sep 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Francois Letexier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 54% | 56% | 1.81 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.58 | fair |
| Angers SCO win | 19% | 17% | 5.29 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Mateo Pavlović · Angers SCO |
| 34' | ⚽ | Karl Toko Ekambi · Angers SCO |
| 39' | ⚽ (pen) | Mario Balotelli · OGC Nice |
| 40' | 🟨 | Mehdi Tahrat · Angers SCO |
| 46' | 🟨 | Maxime Le Marchand · OGC Nice |
| 63' | 🟨 | Mario Balotelli · OGC Nice |
| 71' | 🟨 | Yoan Cardinale · OGC Nice |
| 75' | 🟨 | Mateo Pavlović · Angers SCO |
| 76' | ⚽ (og) | Ismaël Traoré · OGC Nice |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dante · OGC Nice |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 17 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | OGC Nice | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Allianz Riviera |
| coach days | 509.00 | 2275.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1684.50 | 1539.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.01 | 8.05 |
| eye test v1 | 0.43 | 0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.64 |
| league points | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.60 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.20 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.90 | -0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 24.97 | — |
| state index | 0.95 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.49 | -0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |