← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Sep 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Nicolas Rainville, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 41% | 44% | 2.41 | value: +5% |
| OGC Nice win | 31% | 27% | 3.14 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.49 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟨 | Sanjin Prcić · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Allan Saint-Maximin · OGC Nice |
| 49' | 🟨 | Christophe Jallet · OGC Nice |
| 69' | 🟨 | Jean Michaël Seri · OGC Nice |
| 79' | ⚽ | Mario Balotelli · OGC Nice |
| 85' | 🟨 | Pierre Lees Melou · OGC Nice |
| 90' | 🟨 | Arnaud Souquet · OGC Nice |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Rennais FC 1901 | OGC Nice |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Roazhon Park |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 443.00 | 504.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.84 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1544.26 | 1676.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.33 | 10.22 |
| eye test v1 | 0.56 | 0.81 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.70 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.65 |
| league points | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 88.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 57.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | — |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.30 | 1.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| squad age | — | 26.08 |
| state index | 0.19 | 0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.84 | 1.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |