← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Sep 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ruddy Buquet, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 83% | 75% | 1.18 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 19% | 9.30 | value: +77% |
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 6% | 6% | 15.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Thiago Motta · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 55' | 🟨 | Nabil Fekir · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 75' | ⚽ (og) | Marcelo · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 76' | 🟨 | Neymar · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 79' | 🟨 | Ferland Mendy · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 81' | 🟨 | Thiago Silva · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 86' | ⚽ (og) | Jérémy Morel · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Paris Saint-Germain FC | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Parc des Princes |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 473.00 | 656.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1869.80 | 1719.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.00 | -1.03 |
| eye test v1 | 2.04 | 0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | -0.59 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.90 | 62.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.33 | 0.70 |
| league points | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 17.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 90.40 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 69.60 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 2.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.60 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 2.82 | 0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.50 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 10.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 24.67 | 24.79 |
| state index | 2.04 | 0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.46 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |