← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Sep 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Stephane Jochem, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angers SCO win | 63% | 63% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | 4.25 | fair |
| Metz win | 14% | 15% | 7.15 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 55' | ⚽ | Nolan Roux · Metz |
| 62' | 🟨 | Chris Philipps · Metz |
| 77' | 🟨 | Iván Balliu · Metz |
| 90' | 🟨 | Thomas Mangani · Angers SCO |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cafú · Metz |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Angers SCO | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade Raymond Kopa |
| coach days | 2270.00 | 656.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.31 |
| elo | 1555.43 | 1400.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.27 | -32.54 |
| eye test v1 | 0.14 | -1.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.46 | -0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.40 | 62.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.68 |
| league points | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | — |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -9.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.44 | 0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 1.60 |
| state index | 0.22 | -1.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.60 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |