← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Olivier Thual, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 48% | 44% | 2.04 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 34% | 3.32 | value: +12% |
| Caen win | 22% | 22% | 4.37 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Jan Repas · Caen |
| 73' | ⚽ | Andrei Girotto · Nantes |
| 87' | 🟨 | Youssef Aït Bennasser · Caen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire |
| coach days | 107.00 | 2999.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.31 | 2.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1539.96 | 1469.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.95 | 23.41 |
| eye test v1 | -0.67 | -0.63 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 53.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.74 |
| league points | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.08 | -0.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| state index | 0.04 | 0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.82 | -0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |