← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Brisard Jerome, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guingamp win | 47% | 48% | 2.07 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.44 | fair |
| Lille OSC win | 24% | 23% | 4.05 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 56' | 🟨 | Yassine Benzia · Lille OSC |
| 87' | 🟨 | Lucas Deaux · Guingamp |
| 90' | ⚽ | Étienne Didot · Guingamp |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 8 |
| 8 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Guingamp | Lille OSC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | Stade du Roudourou |
| coach days | 442.00 | 107.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 4.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1520.22 | 1543.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.23 | -24.48 |
| eye test v1 | -0.43 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 47.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.78 |
| league points | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | — |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.50 | 0.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | — | 22.35 |
| state index | 0.02 | -0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.65 | 0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |