← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Fri, Sep 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Clement Turpin, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bordeaux win | 39% | 38% | 2.53 | fair |
| Toulouse FC win | 31% | 20% | 3.18 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 42% | 3.22 | value: +37% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Jimmy Durmaz · Toulouse FC |
| 62' | 🟨 | Issa Diop · Toulouse FC |
| 69' | ⚽ | Malcom · Bordeaux |
| 85' | 🟨 | Youssouf Sabaly · Bordeaux |
| 86' | 🟨 | Issiaga Sylla · Toulouse FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 9 |
| 17 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | Bordeaux |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadium Municipal |
| coach days | 563.00 | 441.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 1.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1604.79 | 1708.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.07 | 13.99 |
| eye test v1 | -0.15 | 0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| league points | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.20 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.94 | 1.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.86 | 25.24 |
| state index | 0.04 | 0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.95 | 0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |