← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Sep 10, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Benoit Millot, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 67% | 72% | 1.46 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 20% | 18% | 4.90 | fair |
| Guingamp win | 13% | 10% | 7.71 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Mariano Díaz · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 28' | 🟨 | Christopher Martins Pereira · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 32' | 🟨 | Pedro Rebocho · Guingamp |
| 71' | ⚽ | Marcus Thuram · Guingamp |
| 72' | ⚽ | Nabil Fekir · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 82' | 🟨 | Ludovic Blas · Guingamp |
| 83' | 🟨 | Marcelo · Olympique Lyonnais |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique Lyonnais | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Parc Olympique Lyonnais |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 649.00 | 436.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1719.00 | 1523.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.78 | 20.55 |
| eye test v1 | 0.70 | -0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | -0.71 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.20 | 63.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.69 |
| league points | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | — |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.14 | -0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 22.13 | — |
| state index | 0.87 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.51 | -0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |