← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Brisard Jerome, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 49% | 44% | 2.01 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.50 | value: +5% |
| Amiens win | 23% | 26% | 4.20 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Thomas Monconduit · Amiens |
| 13' | ⚽ | Gaël Kakuta · Amiens |
| 17' | 🟨 | Guy Ngosso · Amiens |
| 61' | 🟨 | Oualid El Hajjam · Amiens |
| 62' | 🟨 | Nuno Da Costa · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 76' | 🟨 | Kenny Lala · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 78' | 🟨 | Kenny Lala · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 78' | 🟥 | Kenny Lala · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 0 |
| 22 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Amiens |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade de la Meinau |
| coach days | 435.00 | 1013.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | — |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | — |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | — |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | — |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.40 | 2.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | — |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | — |
| elo | 1519.70 | 1534.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.60 | -1.36 |
| eye test v1 | -0.54 | -0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | -0.63 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.20 | 63.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | — |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.67 |
| league points | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | — |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | — |
| skill v1 | -0.44 | -0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| state index | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.66 | -0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |