← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jerome Miguelgorry, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 45% | 45% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.15 | fair |
| Nantes win | 24% | 26% | 4.01 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Nordi Mukiele · Montpellier |
| 42' | 🟨 | Emiliano Sala · Nantes |
| 69' | 🟨 | Najib Gandi · Nantes |
| 76' | ⚽ | Diego Carlos · Nantes |
| 84' | 🟥 | Giovanni Sio · Montpellier |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Montpellier | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade de la Mosson |
| coach days | 131.00 | 100.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1561.75 | 1614.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.32 | -21.63 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | -0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.10 | 53.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.63 |
| league points | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.68 | -0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.12 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.40 | -0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |