← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Thomas Leonard, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caen win | 52% | 48% | 1.90 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.53 | fair |
| Dijon win | 21% | 24% | 4.71 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Cédric Yambéré · Dijon |
| 5' | ⚽ (pen) | Ivan Santini · Caen |
| 38' | ⚽ | Jordan Marié · Dijon |
| 65' | 🟨 | Vincent Bessat · Caen |
| 67' | 🟨 | Papy Djilobodji · Dijon |
| 79' | 🟥 | Adama Mbengue · Caen |
| 81' | ⚽ (og) | Cédric Yambéré · Caen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 19 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade Michel d'Ornano |
| coach days | 2992.00 | 1896.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.34 | 3.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1461.20 | 1468.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.74 | 4.43 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | -0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | -0.67 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.10 | 60.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| league points | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.93 | 0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.02 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.29 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |