← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Aug 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Brisard Jerome, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caen win | 54% | 52% | 1.81 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 30% | 3.70 | value: +12% |
| Metz win | 19% | 18% | 5.07 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Opa Nguette · Metz |
| 50' | ⚽ | Ronny Rodelin · Caen |
| 60' | 🟨 | Youssef Aït Bennasser · Caen |
| 66' | 🟨 | Damien Da Silva · Caen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Florent Mollet · Metz |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade Michel d'Ornano |
| coach days | 2978.00 | 634.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.49 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1454.09 | 1411.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.56 | -28.12 |
| eye test v1 | -0.43 | -0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | -0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.30 | 63.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.53 |
| league points | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.99 | 0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.33 | -1.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.20 | 0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |