← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Aug 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Johan Hamel, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 40% | 45% | 2.42 | value: +8% |
| Amiens win | 30% | 24% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 32% | 3.33 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Gaël Kakuta · Amiens |
| 28' | ⚽ | Moussa Konaté · Amiens |
| 42' | 🟨 | Julien Ielsch · Amiens |
| 48' | 🟨 | Alassane Pléa · OGC Nice |
| 54' | 🟨 | Yoan Cardinale · OGC Nice |
| 57' | 🟨 | Thomas Monconduit · Amiens |
| 67' | 🟨 | Malang Sarr · OGC Nice |
| 88' | ⚽ | Moussa Konaté · Amiens |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bakaye Dibassy · Amiens |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Amiens | OGC Nice |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.10 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade de la Licorne |
| coach days | 999.00 | 482.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | — | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | — | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | — | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | — | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.47 | 2.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | — | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | — | 0.51 |
| elo | 1512.39 | 1656.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.50 | -43.51 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | 0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | -1.02 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 65.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| league points | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 89.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | — | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | — | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.48 | 1.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| state index | -0.30 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.66 | 0.94 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |