← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Aug 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Karim Abed, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 56% | 59% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.89 | fair |
| Caen win | 19% | 19% | 5.16 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Damien Da Silva · Caen |
| 37' | 🟨 | Damien Da Silva · Caen |
| 64' | 🟨 | Nicolas Pépé · Lille OSC |
| 65' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Amadou · Lille OSC |
| 69' | ⚽ | Ivan Santini · Caen |
| 79' | 🟨 | Frédéric Guilbert · Caen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lille OSC | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade Pierre-Mauroy |
| coach days | 80.00 | 2972.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.59 | 3.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1563.65 | 1431.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.17 | -0.68 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.66 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.91 | -0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 22.18 | — |
| state index | -0.00 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.44 | -0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |