← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Aug 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Brisard Jerome, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 61% | 66% | 1.62 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 26% | 19% | 3.76 | fair |
| Amiens win | 13% | 14% | 7.36 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ (pen) | Jonathan Bamba · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 39' | 🟨 | Regis Gurtner · Amiens |
| 40' | ⚽ (pen) | Bryan Dabo · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 44' | 🟨 | Saidy Janko · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 66' | 🟨 | Bryan Dabo · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 66' | ⚽ | Bryan Dabo · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 82' | 🟨 | Bakaye Dibassy · Amiens |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 11 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Saint-Étienne | Amiens |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| venue | Stade Geoffroy-Guichard |
| coach days | 79.00 | 992.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | — |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | — |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | — |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | — |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 1.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | — |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | — |
| elo | 1588.23 | 1523.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.06 | 6.66 |
| eye test v1 | -0.36 | -0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.77 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.20 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | — |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.69 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | — |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | — |
| skill v1 | 0.34 | -0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.25 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.33 | -0.74 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |