← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Aug 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Thomas Leonard, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 55% | 64% | 1.78 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 26% | 21% | 3.83 | fair |
| Dijon win | 19% | 15% | 5.11 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Firmin Ndombe Mubele · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 32' | 🟨 | Cédric Yambéré · Dijon |
| 46' | ⚽ | Firmin Ndombe Mubele · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 51' | ⚽ | Chang-Hoon Kwon · Dijon |
| 66' | 🟨 | Fouad Chafik · Dijon |
| 69' | 🟨 | Benjamin André · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 87' | 🟨 | Júlio Tavares · Dijon |
| 90' | 🟨 | Edson Mexer · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Oussama Haddadi · Dijon |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Júlio Tavares · Dijon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 0 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Rennais FC 1901 | Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Roazhon Park |
| 0.80 |
| coach days | 414.00 | 1875.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.89 | 3.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1533.73 | 1455.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.39 | -9.97 |
| eye test v1 | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.46 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.37 | -0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.06 | -0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.34 | -0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |