← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Aug 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ruddy Buquet, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 41% | 45% | 2.38 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.19 | fair |
| Montpellier win | 28% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Christopher Jullien · Toulouse FC |
| 12' | 🟨 | Souleymane Camara · Montpellier |
| 34' | 🟨 | Zinédine Machach · Toulouse FC |
| 43' | ⚽ (pen) | Jimmy Durmaz · Toulouse FC |
| 53' | 🟨 | François Moubandje · Toulouse FC |
| 55' | 🟨 | Giovanni Sio · Montpellier |
| 56' | 🟨 | Yannick Cahuzac · Toulouse FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pedro Mendes · Montpellier |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 25 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadium Municipal |
| coach days | 529.00 | 103.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 1.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1591.64 | 1580.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.13 | -41.92 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 65.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.76 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.24 | 0.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.46 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | 0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |