← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Aug 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Stephane Jochem, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 37% | 39% | 2.64 | fair |
| Caen win | 33% | 34% | 3.01 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.24 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 51' | 🟨 | Kévin Théophile-Catherine · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 67' | ⚽ | Romain Hamouma · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 78' | 🟨 | Jonathan Delaplace · Caen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | AS Saint-Étienne |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | Stade Michel d'Ornano |
| coach days | 2964.00 | 72.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.58 | 1.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1439.25 | 1580.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.55 | -23.93 |
| eye test v1 | -0.17 | -0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 64.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.58 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.43 | 0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.63 | -0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.87 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |