← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Aug 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mikael Lesage, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bordeaux win | 68% | 67% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 22% | 5.05 | value: +13% |
| Metz win | 13% | 10% | 7.76 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Nolan Roux · Metz |
| 44' | ⚽ | Valentín Vada · Bordeaux |
| 45' | 🟨 | Benoît Assou-Ekotto · Metz |
| 55' | 🟨 | Youssouf Sabaly · Bordeaux |
| 64' | ⚽ | Younousse Sankharé · Bordeaux |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 17 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bordeaux | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Matmut Atlantique |
| coach days | 407.00 | 620.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1615.40 | 1418.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.49 | 13.15 |
| eye test v1 | 0.38 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 65.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.53 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.24 | 0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.24 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.31 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |