← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Aug 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Hakim Ben el Salem Hadj, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angers SCO win | 39% | 42% | 2.51 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.14 | fair |
| Amiens win | 30% | 26% | 3.31 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Enzo Crivelli · Angers SCO |
| 27' | ⚽ | Enzo Crivelli · Angers SCO |
| 39' | 🟨 | Mathieu Bodmer · Amiens |
| 43' | 🟨 | Khaled Adenon · Amiens |
| 56' | ⚽ | Thomas Mangani · Angers SCO |
| 69' | 🟨 | Baptiste Guillaume · Angers SCO |
| 90' | 🟨 | Brighton Labeau · Amiens |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 1 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Amiens | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade de la Licorne |
| coach days | 985.00 | 2234.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | — | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | — | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | — | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | — | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | — | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | — | 0.61 |
| elo | 1541.86 | 1531.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.32 | 32.06 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | 0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.52 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.00 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | — | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | — | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.97 | -0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| state index | 0.65 | 0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.08 | -1.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |