← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Aug 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Benoît Bastien, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 75% | 67% | 1.31 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 24% | 5.80 | value: +40% |
| Dijon win | 9% | 9% | 11.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | 🟨 | Luiz Gustavo · Olympique de Marseille |
| 51' | ⚽ | Clinton N'Jie · Olympique de Marseille |
| 54' | ⚽ | Florian Thauvin · Olympique de Marseille |
| 72' | ⚽ | Clinton N'Jie · Olympique de Marseille |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique de Marseille | Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Orange Vélodrome |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 309.00 | 1862.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 3.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1657.84 | 1466.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.54 | 14.60 |
| eye test v1 | 0.53 | 0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.70 | 62.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.90 | — |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.40 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.52 | -0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| state index | 0.96 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.75 | -0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |