← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sun, Aug 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Benoit Millot, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 46% | 44% | 2.15 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.27 | fair |
| Nantes win | 24% | 27% | 4.01 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | 🟨 | Nicolas Pallois · Nantes |
| 48' | ⚽ | Júnior Alonso · Lille OSC |
| 58' | 🟨 | Préjuce Nakoulma · Nantes |
| 61' | 🟨 | Yassine Benzia · Lille OSC |
| 67' | ⚽ (pen) | Nicolas de Préville · Lille OSC |
| 70' | ⚽ | Anwar El Ghazi · Lille OSC |
| 71' | 🟨 | Anwar El Ghazi · Lille OSC |
| 75' | 🟨 | Guillaume Gillet · Nantes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 15 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lille OSC | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade Pierre-Mauroy |
| coach days | 66.00 | 5.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.47 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1647.45 | 1621.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.41 | 15.68 |
| eye test v1 | 0.69 | 0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | -0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 59.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.64 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.70 | 0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.92 | 25.56 |
| state index | 0.77 | 0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.55 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |