← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Aug 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Francois Letexier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 40% | 42% | 2.46 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.23 | fair |
| OGC Nice win | 30% | 30% | 3.29 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Jonathan Bamba · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 12' | 🟨 | Kévin Théophile-Catherine · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 66' | 🟨 | Ole Selnæs · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 70' | 🟨 | Dante · OGC Nice |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Saint-Étienne | OGC Nice |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade Geoffroy-Guichard |
| coach days | 65.00 | 461.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 1.93 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1569.13 | 1677.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.85 | -15.24 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | 0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.00 | 68.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.67 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 86.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.21 | 1.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| state index | -0.47 | 0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | 0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |