← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Aug 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Thomas Leonard, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 54% | 46% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 34% | 3.69 | value: +26% |
| Caen win | 20% | 20% | 4.92 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | 🟨 | Alexander Djiku · Caen |
| 58' | ⚽ | Souleymane Camara · Montpellier |
| 81' | 🟨 | Jérôme Roussillon · Montpellier |
| 90' | 🟨 | Isaac Mbenza · Montpellier |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Montpellier | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade de la Mosson |
| coach days | 96.00 | 2957.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 3.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1573.18 | 1529.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -52.15 | -13.74 |
| eye test v1 | 0.17 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.43 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.90 | 53.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.61 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.60 | -0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.77 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.05 | -0.98 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |