← Ligue 1 2017-18 · Sat, Aug 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jerome Miguelgorry, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guingamp win | 38% | 39% | 2.54 | fair |
| Metz win | 32% | 32% | 3.01 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.35 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Nolan Roux · Metz |
| 39' | 🟨 | Milan Biševac · Metz |
| 39' | ⚽ (pen) | Jimmy Briand · Guingamp |
| 41' | 🟨 | Lebogang Phiri · Guingamp |
| 45' | 🟨 | Yannis Salibur · Guingamp |
| 70' | ⚽ | Ludovic Blas · Guingamp |
| 84' | ⚽ | Moustapha Diallo · Guingamp |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Metz | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stade Saint-Symphorien |
| coach days | 613.00 | 400.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 3.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1433.06 | 1509.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.93 | -21.29 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | 0.63 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.60 | 64.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.78 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.60 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.25 | 0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| state index | -0.31 | -0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.12 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |