← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Benoit Millot, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nancy win | 53% | 45% | 1.86 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.95 | fair |
| AS Saint-Étienne win | 22% | 30% | 4.36 | value: +32% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Alexis Busin · Nancy |
| 56' | 🟨 | Erick Cabaco · Nancy |
| 59' | ⚽ | Modou Diagne · Nancy |
| 62' | 🟨 | Serge N'Guessan · Nancy |
| 74' | ⚽ | Arnaud Nordin · AS Saint-Étienne |
| 82' | ⚽ | Faitout Maouassa · Nancy |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nancy | AS Saint-Étienne |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| venue | Stade Marcel-Picot |
| coach days | 1327.00 | 2727.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 1.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1531.06 | 1670.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.00 | -5.60 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | 0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.60 |
| league points | 32.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.40 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.40 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.13 | -0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.16 | 27.48 |
| state index | -0.90 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.83 | -0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |