← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Frank Schneider, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 72% | 82% | 1.36 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 17% | 12% | 5.90 | fair |
| Bastia win | 11% | 6% | 8.80 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 4 |
| 3 | On target | 0 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 17 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique de Marseille | Bastia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.39 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Orange Vélodrome |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 231.00 | 505.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.38 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1728.19 | 1544.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 37.14 | 6.83 |
| eye test v1 | 0.81 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | 45.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.88 | 0.66 |
| league points | 59.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.20 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.20 | 37.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.62 | -1.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 2.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 29.73 | 26.06 |
| state index | 1.26 | -0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.72 | -0.99 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |