← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antony Gautier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Lorient win | 42% | 43% | 2.32 | fair |
| Bordeaux win | 31% | 32% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.61 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Younousse Sankharé · Bordeaux |
| 61' | 🟨 | Diego Rolán · Bordeaux |
| 62' | 🟨 | Vincent Le Goff · FC Lorient |
| 68' | 🟨 | Diego Contento · Bordeaux |
| 69' | ⚽ | Vincent Le Goff · FC Lorient |
| 77' | 🟨 | Romain Philippoteaux · FC Lorient |
| 78' | 🟨 | Adam Ounas · Bordeaux |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Lorient | Bordeaux |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade du Moustoir |
| coach days | 200.00 | 323.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 1.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1550.33 | 1705.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.19 | 13.40 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.58 | -0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.70 |
| league points | 35.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.87 | -0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.81 | 26.46 |
| state index | -0.24 | 0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.99 | -0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |