← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ruddy Buquet, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guingamp win | 67% | 59% | 1.47 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 22% | 5.00 | value: +10% |
| Metz win | 14% | 19% | 7.18 | value: +35% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | ⚽ | Moustapha Diallo · Guingamp |
| 74' | 🟨 | Chris Philipps · Metz |
| 79' | 🟨 | Simon Falette · Metz |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 0 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Guingamp | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| venue | Stade du Roudourou |
| coach days | 323.00 | 536.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.33 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1583.33 | 1558.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.75 | 13.41 |
| eye test v1 | 0.77 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 62.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.69 |
| league points | 47.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 39.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.01 | -0.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 28.36 | 27.09 |
| state index | -0.01 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.39 | -0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |