← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sat, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Lionel Jaffredo, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angers SCO win | 54% | 46% | 1.81 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 27% | 4.01 | value: +9% |
| Montpellier win | 21% | 27% | 4.57 | value: +24% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Lukáš Pokorný · Montpellier |
| 28' | 🟨 | Bryan Passi · Montpellier |
| 82' | ⚽ | Jonathan Bamba · Angers SCO |
| 88' | ⚽ | Flavien Tait · Angers SCO |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 6 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Angers SCO | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade Raymond-Kopa |
| coach days | 2150.00 | 19.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1598.00 | 1585.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.48 | -29.70 |
| eye test v1 | 0.72 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 64.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.62 |
| league points | 43.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 1.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.05 | 26.11 |
| state index | 0.24 | -0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.91 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |