← Ligue 1 2016-17 · Sun, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Stephane Lannoy, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz win | 36% | 36% | 2.75 | fair |
| Toulouse FC win | 35% | 32% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 32% | 3.34 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Martin Braithwaite · Toulouse FC |
| 66' | ⚽ | Ismaïla Sarr · Metz |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 17 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Metz | Toulouse FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| coach days | 530.00 | 439.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.10 |
| venue | Stade Saint-Symphorien |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| -3.60 |
| -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1559.07 | 1595.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.21 | -23.79 |
| eye test v1 | -0.55 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.50 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.76 |
| league points | 42.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.40 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -9.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.31 | -0.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.87 | 24.77 |
| state index | -0.00 | -0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.86 | -0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |